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24 July 2023
Monday
All eyes will be on upcoming policy meetings.
Indian rupee opened tad lower at the start of the week at 81.01, though it has manage to hold its head above 82 levels due to FII’s inflows. Rupee has been better performing currency amongst other developing countries, even though dollar has found its footing recently. FIIs seems to be favoring India and pumped in around USD 16.6 bn into the local markets for the current financial year. Meanwhile, its seems RBI has been absorbing foreign exchange inflows to increase their reserves as data released last week, showed India’s foreign exchange reserves have jumped by $12.74 bn from its preceding week, recording their biggest gain in four months to USD 609 bn. Hence above factors has helped rupee to maintain its positive momentum. Going ahead, upcoming week would be important, as all three major central banks will spell out their monetary policies. The Fed is likely to hike its Fed funds target range by 25 bps. Though the ECB is also likely to follow suit, both the central banks will leave future expectations open. The BOJ is unlikely to make any drastic changes to its monetary policy.
Brent crude prices gained about 2.5% from the previous week while WTI Crude prices gained about 1.5%. Oil prices found support earlier this week after China’s top economic planner pledged on Tuesday to roll out policies to restore and expand consumption. On the supply side, Russia announced that it would cut oil exports by 2.1 million tons in line with the planned 500,000 barrels per day cut in August. Expectations that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is getting closer also added to bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, data showed that US crude inventories declined by 708K barrels last week, compared with market expectations of a larger 2.4 million barrels drop.
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